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US: Slower growth in new short-term rental listings is helping existing property managers maintain occupancy and increase pricing power, according to AirDNA’s 2026 Midyear Outlook.
The report forecasts US short-term rental occupancy will average 57.4% this year, remaining above the pre-pandemic average of 57%, while demand and available listings are both expected to increase by 2.7%.
Revenue per available rental (RevPAR) is projected to grow by 2.9%, driven almost entirely by higher average daily rates (ADR), with nightly rate growth accelerating from 0.7% year-on-year in January to around 3% by spring.
AirDNA said expectations of lower borrowing costs encouraging new investment have not materialised after renewed inflation and higher energy prices pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, slowing the pace of new supply entering the market.
Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA, said: “At the beginning of the year, we expected lower borrowing costs to bring more new supply to market. Instead, renewed inflation driven by the war in Iran and the resulting energy shock pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, delaying investment.
“That slower supply growth, combined with healthy travel demand, has supported occupancy while creating stronger pricing conditions for established operators. As inflation eases, we expect demand and investment activity to strengthen further in 2027.”
The report also points to changing traveller behaviour, with bookings being made closer to arrival, trips becoming shorter, and demand continuing to shift towards larger properties that can accommodate groups.
International demand remains mixed. Demand from Canada and Western Europe was down compared with last year, while arrivals from Latin America, led by Brazil and Argentina, continued to grow. AirDNA also highlighted the FIFA World Cup as a driver of stronger demand and pricing across several host markets.
Among US destinations, San Francisco recorded the strongest RevPAR growth so far this year at 12.1%, followed by Anaheim (11%) and Philadelphia (10.1%), while the fastest supply growth is expected in more affordable rural, small-city and mid-sized markets.
Rohit Bezewada, CEO of AirDNA, said: “National averages only tell part of the story. The operators and investors who succeed this year are the ones working from granular, market-level data.”
Highlights:
- AirDNA forecasts US STR occupancy of 57.4% in 2026, above pre-pandemic levels.
- RevPAR is expected to increase 2.9%, driven primarily by higher ADR.
- New listing growth is forecast to slow to 2.7% as higher mortgage rates delay investment.
- Travellers are booking later, taking shorter trips and increasingly choosing larger homes.
- FIFA World Cup demand is supporting pricing in several host markets.
