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US: Short-term rental investment conditions in the US are expected to improve in 2026, with AirDNA forecasting the strongest market environment since 2021, according to its newly released 2026 Outlook Report.
The report points to a combination of cooling home prices, slower supply growth and stabilising revenue indicators as factors improving the investment outlook. While US short-term rental occupancy is expected to dip by around 1% in 2026, AirDNA said the adjustment reflects a market moving closer to balance between supply and demand.
Available listings are forecast to grow by 4.6% next year, significantly lower than the peak expansion of around 20% recorded in 2021 and 2022. Average daily rates are expected to increase by 1.5% in 2026, with further acceleration forecast for 2027.
Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, said the platform’s data suggests short-term rentals remain an attractive investment opportunity. He said the “STR premium” – a measure of how short-term rental earnings compare with investment costs – has reached its highest level since 2022, supported by more stable revenue growth.
The report identified coastal, mountain and lake destinations, as well as suburban areas near major US cities, as some of the most favourable markets heading into 2026.
AirDNA also highlighted the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a potential demand driver, with several host cities already pacing ahead of seasonal norms. Forecast RevPAR growth for 2026 includes Philadelphia at 6.3%, Jersey City and Newark at 5.6%, and Dallas at 5.5%.
Rohit Bezewada, chief executive of AirDNA, said 2026 is shaping up to offer opportunities for both new and established operators, provided they adapt to shifting market conditions.
Highlights:
- AirDNA’s 2026 Outlook Report shows that ADR are expected to increase next year.
- Investment outlook has improved, though occupancy is expected to decrease by 1%.
- Coastal, mountain and lake destinations markets presented as favourable markets heading into 2026.
- Sport events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup have driven STR demand and contributed to an increase in forecast RevPAR growth for 2026.
