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US: According to Key Data, the US vacation rental market has entered 2026 with softer early demand, although pricing trends suggest operators are expecting a stronger performance later in the booking cycle.
According to the Q1 2026 US Key Data Index, early paid occupancy is pacing 6% lower year on year for January and 5% lower for February. However, the gap narrows closer to arrival, with March occupancy tracking just 3% below last year.
Despite weaker forward bookings, operators are holding rates. Average daily rate (ADR) is pacing 2% higher year on year in January, rising to 4% in February and March. Forward RevPAR is down 4% in January, stabilises to flat in February and turns slightly positive in March.
Key Data said the figures reflect a continued shift towards later booking behaviour rather than a collapse in demand. Booking windows remain shorter, while average length of stay is also down across the quarter.
Regional performance remains mixed. Late-2025 data shows strong results in the Mid-Atlantic and New England, where RevPAR rose 18% year on year. In the Western US, RevPAR increased 8% despite flat occupancy, driven by pricing.
Distribution trends also continue to shift. In Q4 2025, Airbnb accounted for 54% of reservations and 45% of revenue, while direct bookings fell to 21% of reservations.
Highlights:
- US vacation rental booking windows continue to shorten entering 2026, Key Data reports
- Early paid occupancy pacing lower year on year, but gaps narrow closer to arrival
- Operators holding rates, with ADR tracking higher despite softer forward demand
- RevPAR stabilises and turns slightly positive by March, according to Q1 data
- Airbnb gains share as travellers book closer to arrival
